Thursday, February 09, 2006

Is that you John Wayne?

Freud called it "Das Unheimlich", The Uncanny in the sense of fear, dread and horror.

Yip. Fear, dread and Horror.

That's the uncanny feeling I have at the moment, at the thought that Team America is gearing up for their next target, Iran. There are countless articles circulating on the net at the moment as to the why, when and how, but one of the most succinct and relevant pieces, comes from John Pilger:

"Iran offers no "nuclear threat". There is not the slightest evidence that it has the centrifuges necessary to enrich uranium to weapons-grade material. The head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, has repeatedly said his inspectors have found nothing to support American and Israeli claims. Iran has done nothing illegal; it has demonstrated no territorial ambitions nor has it engaged in the occupation of a foreign country - unlike the United States, Britain and Israel. It has complied with its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty to allow inspectors to "go anywhere and see anything" - unlike the US and Israel. The latter has refused to recognise the NPT, and has between 200 and 500 thermonuclear weapons targeted at Iran and other Middle Eastern states." More...

This issue is patently not a nuclear issue, because if it was we would actually be talking about Pakistan or Israel, not Iran. In fact Pakistan is a far more dodgy entity than Iran. General Musharev seized power in a military coup under highly dubious circumstances that have never had the light shone on them by the international community. And with the absurd twisted logic that passes for American Foreign Policy, the General is considered an ally in the pursuit of freedom and democracy ?!?

Come on please people, get real! How about at least trying to be consistent? Nope, too much to ask for. So what happens if, as these things do, the old General is displaced from his perch by a team more extremist in their views, with a different disposition towards the West and their finger on the nuclear trigger... eh?

Yes. Ok Now. The issue is not the nukes, it's not about the "War of Error", or any other publicly proclaimed reason. It's about resource control, the Oil and how it is distributed. It is fascinating to read about Iran's plans for an Oil Bourse which makes perfect sense for them. In fact I've always believed that South African gold and platinum should be priced and sold in Rands on a South African Metals Exchange, not having the price set by some pinhead in London in dollar amounts. Yip, that would bring the cruise missiles raining down on Sandton. But seriously, why is gold priced in dollars?? How many ounces were produced in the US in 2005? Who needs the dollar outside of the US anymore - you'd just be holding a piece of an $8 Trillion debt, and who wants that?

So the economics of it all do seem to be driving the process. The IAEA members rolled over last Saturday (I hope they get all the goodies they were promised) and off to the UNSC we go. That'll be what, early March? Another month of behind the scenes bribery, bullying and ass-licking gets us to another round-table where we already know what the basic outcome will be. Whether anyone has the balls to veto anything remains to be seen, but we pretty much can guess that either John Wayne style or by some goofy coalition there will be some sort of unattainable ultimatum issued to Iran.

This should be around mid-March or so. With the planned Bourse to open around the 20th and the Israeli Elections scheduled for the 28th, we are looking at a window of 3 or 4 weeks from the 15th of March onwards. What will happen during that window?

Well, the gameplan is shaping up with air strikes against Iran by the US and /or the Israelis. You can pretty much bet your bottom dollar that targets will not be purely "nuclear" sites. That already gives lie to all the current hubris about Iran wanting nukes. Nope, without a doubt other "strategic targets" will get hit to maximize the first strike; command and control sites, air defense sites, runways, telecoms, power stations and public toilets. In other words this is not going to be a "Police Action", this is very much about a first strike to degrade the Iranian response, which seems to be another sure bet. A couple less eyes later and a whole lot more blindness going on, things are going to be messy whichever way you slice it.

So the question arises, will there be a full-blown invasion? The air campaign, could last anywhere between 2 and 6 weeks, which considering Iran hasn't been pulverized by 12 years of bombing like Iraq was, it may actually take longer. One doubts that Team America would commit ground troops without a slight case of overbombing first.

One needs to bear in mind that US Military Doctrine has maintained for a long time that the US needs to be prepared to fight full-scale combat in two theatres simultaneously. So when one hears about how bogged down in Iraqi the military is and how badly they are coping, one needs to have a pinch of salt handy. If Team America wants to go into Iran, then they will. They do have the wherewithal, they just need the desire. Or order, to be more specific.

If there is going to be a ground offensive, I doubt that it will be a march all the way to Tehran to set up a western style democracy. As this article points out, there is only a section of Iran that is of any real interest, Khuzestan. Yip I hadn't heard of it before either, but trust me, you will be hearing a lot more about it. Click here for a map. Apparently this is the piece of Iran that Saddam went after for 8 years in the Iran-Iraq war, the war in which he was egged on by Team America.

Das Unheimlich. I feel it and it makes me sick.

OK Now.

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