Monday, March 13, 2006

The March to War

As the march to war with Iran continues this month, with Team America falling over themselves to get in front of the cameras and push ever harder for 'tangible consequences' (whatever that maybe), I have been wondering when exactly this madcap scheme was dreamed up.

There has been a lot of talk about the planned Iranian Oil Bourse as a driver for the launch of an offensive, but I think that argument ignores a lot of history. Once you read about where the idea of the Oil Bourse came from, and why it isn't really a threat to Dollar hegemony, then you have to rewind back to the Iranian revolution, and gauge what kind of scores are being settled here.

The origins of the oil bourse
The idea of creating a new trading platform in Iran to trade oil and to create a new crude-oil benchmark apparently originated with the former director of the London International Petroleum Exchange, Chris Cook. In a January 21 article in Asia Times Online (What the Iran 'nuclear issue' is really about), Cook explained the background. More...

As I have pointed out before, Iran has been a target for ages, and since the 2002 "Axis of Evil" blatherings from George the war plans have been constantly updated.

But where are we now? I reckon with 20 odd days to go into the end of the month, we are unlikely to see the UN Security Council being able to issue any kind of ultimatum without some period for "compliance" or some such nonsense of at least 30 days. A lot of speculation has revolved around the end of March for the war, and while that seems to be out of play at the moment perhaps the calendar has been altered to account for the Israeli elections.

I don't seem much happening until after the elections - an Israeli launched attack prior to the elections would radically alter the electoral process where polling stations would have to be relocated to bombshelters. And a Team America led attack would no doubt still leave the Israelis reaching for the gas masks. With Ariel still comatose, there isn't anyone strong enough on the Israeli stage to rally the population.

But this is just a delay, and any manufactured ultimatums from the puppet show at the UN SC would likely fall around early to mid-April.

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